The war in Ukraine is an expression of an underlying trend: the ever-increasing competition between superpowers, countries with exceptional political, economic and military power, which are embroiled in ever-increasing geopolitical tensions. This development could disrupt the Netherlands because it jeopardizes the foundations of Dutch prosperity, well-being and security. And also the energy transition.
A new report from the The Hague Center for Strategic Studies (HCSS) maps out the possible consequences of (a succession of) geopolitical crises due to the intensification of the competition between major powers for the social stability of and in the Netherlands. In particular, a crisis in East Asia could seriously disrupt the supply of raw materials from China and chips from Taiwan, the researchers warn in ” Competition between superpowers and social stability in the Netherlands: the risks of Russian gas, Chinese raw materials and Taiwanese chips for vital sectors .”
By way of illustration, the authors describe two geopolitical crisis scenarios that take place between 2028 and 2032: an embargo of critical raw materials imposed by China on the EU and a Chinese maritime blockade of Taiwan. Both scenarios would have dire consequences. Raw materials are not only building blocks for the energy transition and chips are not only for digitization: both raw materials and chips enable the functioning of entire vital sectors, namely
- the medical sector;
- the defense and security domain;
- the sustainable energy system;
- sustainable mobility;
This report adds a new perspective to this by specifically mapping the possible consequences of disruptions in the supply of raw materials and chips for these vital sectors in the Netherlands, and therefore also for the social stability of our country. The study outlines an emergency situation that could arise in the next five to ten years if the Netherlands and the EU do not take large-scale action in the short term to become more geopolitically resilient, for example by reducing unwanted dependencies. By providing insight into the consequences for well-being, prosperity and security in Europe of a geopolitical crisis in East Asia, the report attempts to encourage action.
This study was carried out by HCSS on behalf of the Dutch police, as part of the multi-year program ‘Strategic Police Monitor’. The aim of this program is to provide an ‘from the outside in’ and future-oriented look at and interpretation of relevant trends and developments, in order to support the strategy-making of the Dutch police.
/* check if google analytics tracking is disabled by user setting via cookie - or user must opt in. */
var analytics_code = "\n